“We always say live for today and don’t waste time worrying about tomorrow. But what keeps us up at night is knowing that tomorrow is roaring down on us like a tsunami, and a lot of us don’t know how to swim.” — Police procedural crime novelist, Barbara Nickless, from her book Ambush

People often think that tsunamis are simply massive waves that submerge a body of land — the kind of waves, for instance, that a hurricane produces. Instead, a tsunami is not only a massive amount of water covering an area of land, but also an underlying epic and violent change in the seafloor, often caused by an earthquake or volcano, that displaces a significant mass of water. The combination of displacing the water and the sudden change in the floor under that water can produce waves that arrive on land at heights of 70 to 100 feet. In the case of the largest known tsunami in Alaska, occurring in 1958, “wave run-up reached a height of 1,720 feet” according to Live Science.

I’ve been a recruiter for various sectors of manufacturing for nearly a decade and prior to that I worked for 10 years as an engineer, first in a large textile and chemical manufacturer, and then for a regional design and construction firm. I can safely say that in my 20 year career I have never seen so desperate a need for manufacturing talent at all levels as this year. I frequently hear — and have said these words myself — “where have all the people gone?” At times the talent shortage has felt “tsunami- like” in its scale.

I think, in order to solve a problem, you have to first understand why the problem has occurred. In the case of our current talent shortage we have, like natural tsunamis, twodifferent causes, one immediate and circumstantial, and the other an epic generational shift.

2020 Response & Consequences

The immediate, circumstantial lack of talent right now has occurred because of the events of 2020 and response to it from both companies and governments. You’ve heard of “The Great Resignation” and maybe you’ve even experienced it at your company. Think of these employment changes as the immediate wall of water rushing towards land.

1) A large number of employees were laid off by companies or were forced to stop working by government edicts. I think we are underestimating what that did to people’s minds and hearts. Some of those who are driven and resourceful determined that they would never again be as subject to the “whims” or power of companies as they were then — and they often went to work for themselves. Entrepreneurship was given a significant boost during the pandemic in part because people felt as if they had no other options. In particular in-person employment — like retail, restaurants, events, and yes, manufacturing — was most effected by the shut-downs and layoffs. Some of those who remained within the corporate structure have struggled as well. The uncertainty and confusion of a year or more of tenuous employment damaged their motivation and commitment.

2) Significant burnout occurred for those in the most-effected industries as they were left to carry the load with less staff, fewer resources, logistics and supply shortages, and often tense and angry customers. That also led to many rethinking their careers and lifestyles.

3) People were faced, some for the first time, with the thought of their own mortality and this has caused perspectives and priorities to change. People simply developed different values over what is now an approaching three year mark.

4) Plenty of baby boomers simply chose this time to finally retire. They looked at a sea of shortages, stress, staff depletion and thought “I can move on from this.”

5) Three million women were forced to leave a job because of the logistics of family, children, and schooling during COVID. Only two million have returned, leaving a gap of one million who have not yet returned to work and may never do so due to either childcare issues, changing values, or other reasons. (For further discussion on this issue see the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report, this CNBC story, and this SHRM analysis.) Give people an opportunity to live life a different way — and some people never look back.

6) Many people learned that they liked working virtually, flexible hours, and being at home rather than commuting to the office. If I’ve heard it once I’ve heard it a thousand times: “I get more done at home, and I don’t waste an hour in the car driving to and from the office either.” In fact, one of the motivating factors for some finding new jobs, new careers, and new industries was the “back-to- the-office” announcements that staff didn’t want to hear.

To sum up the above, there are more options for people to make money than there have ever been before — and, increasingly, people have learned to more greatly value career freedom.

An Epic, Generational Shift

The immediate, circumstantial causes of our talent gap would be enough to create quite a wave. But underlying that massive wave is the underlying epic shift under the water at the seafloor level. For probably one of the first times in history, we have five generations in the workforce — Silents/Traditionalists (now intheir 70s), Boomers, Gen-X, Gen-Y/ Millennials, and Gen-Z — all
shaped by staggeringly different life experiences, at different stages in life, and with different cultures and values — and yet we frequently offer a one- size-fits-all workplace environment.

Furthermore, to add to the challenges of coping with the needs of very different generations in the workforce, power in the hiring process has shifted from employer to the candidate. What that means is that the employer has to work at least as hard as the candidate to be attractive to that candidate. In other words, the company must market itself not just to its customers, but to potential employees.

According to now-familiar demographic research, each of the five generations is accustomed
to and appreciates a different managerial style, has sought different career goals (even in their youth, Traditionalists sought security and stability over autonomy/freedom/ options), and perceives different reward structures for work. Without reviewing every category for each generation, let me mention a few well-recognized contrasts in style.

— Both traditionalists and babyboomers saw job stability
— staying with one company or at most two or three (if they were daring!) — as appropriate and positive. The average millennial has held somewhere around seven jobs before age 30. They think nothing of switching jobs — it’s considered a natural part of life and career.

Careers for four generations were built on the annual review and limited formal feedback. Gen-Z is used to real-time constant feedback at the push of a button. Now.

Gen Z doesn’t “go online” — they live online. They are digital natives — extremely tech-savvy — and born to live in a digital/virtual world. Increasingly younger generations of workers rely on workplaces
to provide purpose and personal development. The purpose — not duty — of the work is what motivates them to get out of bed in the morning and head to the workplace. They don’t pursue sameness or stability; they pursue change, growth, stimulation, and the new and different. If you are thinking of keeping Gen Y or Gen Z employees in the same jobs or roles for even a one-year period, you will lose them.

To sum up the above, unless manufacturers are able to flexibly adapt to the needs, cultures, goals, and values of the newer generations, they will not appreciably close the talent gap.

That combination of the unique circumstances of the past two+ years, which has led to a radical shift in employment values for a large portion of the workforce, plus the significant underlying epic generational shifts that manufacturers must adapt to, is what I believe has led to our staggering talent losses.

The best way that I know to succinctly describe that process of appeal, adaptation, and marketing
that employers will have to pursue to make up that talent gap is that leaders are going to have to pay attention to and build the employer brand as much as they have worked to build the product, service, or consumer brand of the company.

Building the employer brand is easy enough to say. But tackling the steps and sometimes the deep cultural shifts that will have to take place to build a recognizable, appealing employer brand to potential staff is the stuff of years of intentional work — and the topic for another article (or ten articles!) as well.

Originally posted in May 2022; Cover Story, Manufacturing Outlook May 2022